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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Barrow 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Barrow 0-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.51 xG and Crawley Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barrow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Crawley Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.49, drawn from 71/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 45% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 30%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 46%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights