Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Barrow's attack rating (0.98) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.73x) against Barrow's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 61/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.98
0.72
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
6%
16.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Barrow and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Barrow and 0.72 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.