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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barnet.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Barnet 1-3 at The Hive Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnet 1.39 xG and Salford City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnet attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Salford City attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnet 44% | Draw 29% | Salford City 28%, with Barnet to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnet 40%, Salford City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnet's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Salford City's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnet 1.40 PPG, Salford City 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Barnet (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights