AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.26x the league average against Newport County's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.76x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.24
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.52
0.75
Newport County xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
3%
39.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.75 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.