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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.37 xG and Harrogate Town 0.56 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Harrogate Town attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 15%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 37%, Harrogate Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.51 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights