AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.23x the league average against Doncaster's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Doncaster's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.88
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.93
1.37
Doncaster xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.37 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.