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Dominant AFC Wimbledon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Crewe 3-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.98 xG and Crewe 0.69 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Crewe attack 0.84 / defence 0.72, drawn from 74/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 40% | Draw 36% | Crewe 24%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crewe's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.54 PPG, Crewe 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights