AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Crawley Town travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Crawley Town's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Wimbledon 0.70 PPG, Crawley Town 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 0 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 54% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 42% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.47 xG and Crawley Town 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.933 / defence 1.170 | Crawley Town attack 0.731 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.065. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 AFC Wimbledon games / 80 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 23%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 4.35. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Crawley Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.47 / Crawley Town 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.933 / def 1.170 | Crawley Town attack 0.731 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Crawley Town xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 49% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.59
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
Crawley Town xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.91 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 31D 34L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 24W 18D 38L from 80 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 0.95 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (8W 19D 12L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 8W 10D 21L from 39 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.16 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 60%.
Last 80 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 15W 31D 34L in their last 80 games (0.95 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 24W 18D 38L in their last 80 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Crawley Town away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.10 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 56%, Crawley Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 59% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.47 xG and Crawley Town 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Crawley Town attack 0.73 / defence 1.35, drawn from 36/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 23%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 42%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.95 PPG, Crawley Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.