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Walsall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Accrington ST.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Accrington ST 1-3 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.96 xG and Walsall 0.93 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Walsall attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 35% | Draw 32% | Walsall 33%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 48%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights