Accrington ST 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Walsall make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 3W 5D 2L at Wham Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Walsall have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Walsall have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Walsall arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Walsall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Walsall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 62% and Walsall 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 64% | Walsall 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.33 xG and Walsall 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.065 / defence 1.048 | Walsall attack 1.288 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Walsall have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Accrington ST games / 58 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 30% | Draw 24% | Walsall 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Walsall 2.17. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 70% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 30% | Draw 24% | Walsall 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Accrington ST 1.33 / Walsall 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.065 / def 1.048 | Walsall attack 1.288 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Walsall (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Walsall xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Walsall kick off?
Accrington ST vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Accrington ST vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Walsall part of?
Accrington ST vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 30% chance of winning, Walsall a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Accrington ST and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Walsall?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 0 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Walsall in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Walsall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.06) and Walsall's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (1.29x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
30%
3.33
24%
4.22
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.03
1.70
Walsall xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.30
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.70 for Walsall, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 12D 27L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.55 PPG from 58 outings (26W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.55 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.64 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Walsall in 66%.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Walsall in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Walsall have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Walsall away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.52 PPG; Walsall away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Walsall?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Walsall have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 52%, Walsall 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Accrington ST and 66% for Walsall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Walsall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Accrington ST's games and 66% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Accrington ST's matches and 66% of Walsall's.
Do Accrington ST and Walsall tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Walsall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST and Walsall finished level at 0-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.33 xG and Walsall 1.70 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Walsall attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 30% | Draw 24% | Walsall 46%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 64%, Walsall 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.19 PPG, Walsall 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.