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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Tranmere share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Accrington ST and Tranmere drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.75 xG and Tranmere 1.49 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Tranmere attack 1.39 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 44% | Draw 23% | Tranmere 33%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 49%, Tranmere 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.05 PPG, Tranmere 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights