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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Tranmere share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Accrington ST and Tranmere drew 3-3 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.52 xG and Tranmere 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Tranmere attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 51% | Draw 26% | Tranmere 23%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 59%, Tranmere 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.14 PPG, Tranmere 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights