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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Accrington ST run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Swindon Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Swindon Town 4-0 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.01 xG and Swindon Town 1.61 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swindon Town landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Swindon Town attack 1.33 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 24% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 51%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 47%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Swindon Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Accrington ST winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights