Accrington ST 2-2 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Swindon Town travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swindon Town — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Accrington ST 1.40 PPG, Swindon Town 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Accrington ST register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Swindon Town in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Swindon Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 60% and Swindon Town 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Accrington ST 63% | Swindon Town 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.54 xG and Swindon Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.987 / defence 0.928 | Swindon Town attack 0.981 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.251. Swindon Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Accrington ST games / 61 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Swindon Town 3.57. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Swindon Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Accrington ST 1.54 / Swindon Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.987 / def 0.928 | Swindon Town attack 0.981 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Swindon Town xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Accrington ST 2 - 2 Swindon Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 47% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Accrington ST and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 0 | Swindon Town 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Swindon Town in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Swindon Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.99x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
47%
2.15
25%
3.95
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Swindon Town xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.14 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 13D 27L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swindon Town sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (16W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.22 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Swindon Town have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (3W 11D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swindon Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.52 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Swindon Town in 70%.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Swindon Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.50 PPG; Swindon Town away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Swindon Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Swindon Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Swindon Town 2-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Swindon Town 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Accrington ST and 67% for Swindon Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Accrington ST's games and 77% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Accrington ST's matches and 67% of Swindon Town's.
Do Accrington ST and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Accrington ST and Swindon Town drew 2-2 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.54 xG and Swindon Town 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Swindon Town outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Swindon Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 47% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 28%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 63%, Swindon Town 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.22 PPG, Swindon Town 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.