Accrington ST 0-4 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Notts County at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Notts County encounter.

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Analysis

Notts County make the trip to The Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Accrington ST (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Notts County's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Notts County have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Notts County are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Accrington ST, 3 for Notts County and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Accrington ST 1–0 Notts County — a Accrington ST win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 48% versus Notts County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 43% | Notts County 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Accrington ST surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Notts County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 0.93 xG and Notts County 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.855 / defence 0.889 | Notts County attack 1.018 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.185. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 82 games and Notts County's last 82.

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 31% | Draw 31% | Notts County 38%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.22 | Draw 3.26 | Notts County 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 60% (last 10 away games).

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