Accrington ST 0-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Wham Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Notts County have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Accrington ST, 1.40 for Notts County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Notts County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Accrington ST 0W, Notts County 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 62% and Notts County 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 64% | Notts County 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.047 / defence 1.190 | Notts County attack 1.294 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.178. Notts County have an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Accrington ST games / 70 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 33% | Draw 24% | Notts County 43%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Notts County 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Notts County 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 33% | Draw 24% | Notts County 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Accrington ST 1.59 / Notts County 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.047 / def 1.190 | Notts County attack 1.294 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Notts County (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Notts County xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Notts County kick off?
Accrington ST vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Accrington ST 0 - 3 Notts County.
Where is Accrington ST vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Notts County part of?
Accrington ST vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 33% chance of winning, Notts County a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Accrington ST and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Notts County?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Notts County 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Notts County in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Notts County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.05x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.29x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
33%
3.00
24%
4.16
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.40
1.81
Notts County xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.81 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 69 games, going 22W 16D 31L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.46 PPG from 69 outings (29W 14D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.46 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 13W 10D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.83 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Notts County in 61%.
Last 69 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Notts County in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 22W 16D 31L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Notts County have gone 29W 14D 26L in their last 69 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Notts County away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.44 PPG; Notts County away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 0-4 on 17 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
1
Draws
4
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Notts County have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Accrington ST 0-4 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 53%, Notts County 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Accrington ST) and 59% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Accrington ST's games and 68% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Accrington ST's matches and 59% of Notts County's.
Do Accrington ST and Notts County tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Notts County in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Notts County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Accrington ST 0-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.81 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Notts County outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Notts County attack 1.29 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 33% | Draw 24% | Notts County 43%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 64%, Notts County 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Notts County's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.19 PPG, Notts County 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.