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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Accrington ST 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Accrington ST 1-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.05 xG and Doncaster 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Doncaster attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 27% | Draw 28% | Doncaster 46%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 60%, Doncaster 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights