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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Accrington ST 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Accrington ST 0-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.08 xG and Chesterfield 1.46 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Chesterfield attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 83/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 28% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 46%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Chesterfield 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chesterfield's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.18 PPG, Chesterfield 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights