Accrington ST 0-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cheltenham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cheltenham are 0.50 PPG clear of Accrington ST in recent League Two fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Accrington ST 1W, Cheltenham 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Cheltenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 61% versus Cheltenham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 63% | Cheltenham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.53 xG and Cheltenham 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.932 / defence 1.296 | Cheltenham attack 0.908 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.151. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Accrington ST games / 26 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 41% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 33%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Cheltenham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cheltenham (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 50% | Cheltenham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 41% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Accrington ST 1.53 / Cheltenham 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.932 / def 1.296 | Cheltenham attack 0.908 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Cheltenham xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham part of?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 41% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Accrington ST and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Record (5 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 2 | Cheltenham 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.91x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 71/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.76
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Cheltenham xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.35 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 16D 32L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham's form line: 21W 15D 35L from 71 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.10 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.35 PPG from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 7W 8D 19L from 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 23W 16D 32L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 21W 15D 35L in their last 71 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Cheltenham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.35 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Cheltenham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 53%, Cheltenham 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Accrington ST) and 53% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Cheltenham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Accrington ST's games and 59% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Accrington ST's matches and 53% of Cheltenham's.
Do Accrington ST and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST and Cheltenham finished level at 0-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.53 xG and Cheltenham 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cheltenham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Cheltenham attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 71/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 41% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 33%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 63%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cheltenham's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.20 PPG, Cheltenham 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.