Accrington ST vs Bromley – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.02) and Bromley's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bromley's attack (0.81x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.33
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.26
1.02
Bromley xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.02 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.