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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bristol Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.72 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.87 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.82 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 58% | Draw 24% | Bristol Rovers 19%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 49%, Bristol Rovers 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.05 PPG, Bristol Rovers 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights