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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Wycombe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Wycombe 1-2 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.14 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Stockport County attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 33% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 38%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 47%, Stockport County 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.73 PPG, Stockport County 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights