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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wycombe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Wycombe 1-3 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 0.78 xG and Stockport County 0.83 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.75 / defence 0.80 against Stockport County attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 30% | Draw 36% | Stockport County 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 46%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.64 PPG, Stockport County 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights