🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Wycombe edge out Rotherham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wycombe beat Rotherham 3-2 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.95 xG and Rotherham 0.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Wycombe beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Rotherham attack 0.70 / defence 1.21, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 66% | Draw 21% | Rotherham 14%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 47%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Rotherham's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Wycombe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights