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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Wycombe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Port Vale.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wycombe beat Port Vale 4-0 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 2.11 xG and Port Vale 0.72 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Wycombe beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Port Vale attack 0.71 / defence 1.20, drawn from 85/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 70% | Draw 19% | Port Vale 11%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 45%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Port Vale's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.65 PPG, Port Vale 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wycombe win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights