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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Wycombe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Wycombe 0-1 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 2.38 xG and Plymouth 0.97 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wycombe fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.37 / defence 0.98 against Plymouth attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 69% | Draw 18% | Plymouth 14%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 45%, Plymouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights