🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Wycombe edge out Exeter City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wycombe beat Exeter City 2-1 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.34 xG and Exeter City 0.73 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Exeter City attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 51% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 20%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 54%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Exeter City's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.65 PPG, Exeter City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wycombe win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights