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Stalemate at Wycombe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Adams Park, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Wycombe and Charlton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 0.92 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wycombe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 28% | Draw 31% | Charlton 41%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 47%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.62 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights