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Dominant Charlton run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Wycombe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Wycombe 0-4 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 0.93 xG and Charlton 0.65 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Wycombe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 0.65 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.81 / defence 0.58 against Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 40% | Draw 36% | Charlton 24%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 46%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Charlton's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.67 PPG, Charlton 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights