Wycombe vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wycombe vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wycombe host Bradford at Adams Park in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wycombe — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wycombe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wycombe's home record at Adams Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Bradford have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Wycombe) versus 1.60 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wycombe have won 0, Bradford 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wycombe trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 58% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 52% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 0.95 xG and Bradford 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.134 / defence 1.143 | Bradford attack 0.726 / defence 0.599. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Bradford's defence strength of 0.599 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Wycombe games / 59 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wycombe 30% | Draw 35% | Bradford 35%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Bradford 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Wycombe 70% | Bradford 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 30% | Draw 35% | Bradford 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Wycombe 0.95 / Bradford 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.134 / def 1.143 | Bradford attack 0.726 / def 0.599 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bradford xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wycombe vs Bradford kick off?
Wycombe vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Adams Park.
Where is Wycombe vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Bradford part of?
Wycombe vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 30% chance of winning, Bradford a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Wycombe and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Wycombe vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Wycombe 0W | Draws 0 | Bradford 2W.
What form are Wycombe and Bradford in?
Wycombe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wycombe's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
30%
3.30
35%
2.89
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.00
1.05
Bradford xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.1 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.05 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wycombe's recent record stands at 21W 18D 20L from 59 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Wycombe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 18L across 59 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.37 PPG, Bradford on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wycombe have managed 15W 6D 9L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wycombe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.12 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wycombe and Bradford in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 21W 18D 20L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Bradford have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Bradford away?
Wycombe's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.70 PPG; Bradford away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wycombe and Bradford runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wycombe
0
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Bradford?
From 2 meetings on record, Wycombe have won 0, Bradford have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Wycombe 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 53%, Bradford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wycombe) and 50% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bradford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wycombe play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wycombe's recent matches and 53% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wycombe vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Wycombe's matches and 50% of Bradford's.
Do Wycombe and Bradford tend to score early?
Wycombe have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bradford in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.