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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Wycombe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Wycombe 1-2 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 2.26 xG and Bradford 0.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wycombe fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.34 / defence 0.86 against Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 87/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wycombe 71% | Draw 18% | Bradford 11%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 46%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wycombe's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.64 PPG, Bradford 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights