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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Wigan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Wigan 2-1 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.07 xG and Wigan 0.80 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.18 / defence 0.76 against Wigan attack 0.92 / defence 0.72, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 41% | Draw 32% | Wigan 27%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Wigan 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Wigan's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights