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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Stockport County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Stockport County 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 36% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 31%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Stockport County 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.92 PPG, Stockport County 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights