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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Rotherham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Rotherham 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.48 xG and Rotherham 0.92 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Rotherham attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 49% | Draw 28% | Rotherham 22%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 51%, Rotherham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rotherham's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights