🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Peterborough 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Peterborough 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 2.17 xG and Peterborough 0.98 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wrexham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Peterborough landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.23 / defence 0.78 against Peterborough attack 1.07 / defence 1.39, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 65% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 16%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 51%, Peterborough 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (70 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Peterborough's trading profile (70 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights