Wrexham vs Barnsley – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wrexham's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Barnsley's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Barnsley's attack (1.11x) against Wrexham's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 17/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.00
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.46
0.86
Barnsley xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
24.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Barnsley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Barnsley expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.86 for Barnsley, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Barnsley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.