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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Wigan 0-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wigan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Stockport County attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 27% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 44%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights