Wigan vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Stevenage at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's home record at The Brick Community Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wigan are significantly better at The Brick Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Stevenage have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Wigan.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
It is worth noting that Stevenage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 40% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 34% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.03 xG and Stevenage 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.787 / defence 0.957 | Stevenage attack 0.867 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Wigan's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Wigan games / 55 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 20% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Wigan 1.03 / Stevenage 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.787 / def 0.957 | Stevenage attack 0.867 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stevenage xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stevenage kick off?
Wigan vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at The Brick Community Stadium.
Where is Wigan vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stevenage part of?
Wigan vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 33% chance of winning, Stevenage a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wigan and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
Record (7 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 4W.
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in?
Wigan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.79) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.11
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.11
1.08
Stevenage xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wigan and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Wigan and 1.08 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan's recent record stands at 16W 15D 24L from 55 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 18L across 55 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.15 PPG, Stevenage on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 13W 4D 11L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.04 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 22W 15D 18L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Stevenage away?
Wigan's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.54 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wigan or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stevenage in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Wigan's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Wigan
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
From 7 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wigan 21% BTTS, Stevenage 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Wigan and 39% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 43% of games; Stevenage in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wigan's recent matches and 46% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wigan's recent games and 39% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Stevenage tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.