Poisson model rates Wigan at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Stevenage at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wigan haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wigan's home record at The Brick Community Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Stevenage haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wigan at 1.50 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wigan, 3 for Stevenage and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Table Standings
In the League One table, Wigan sit 3rd on 0 points, 19 places and 0 points ahead of Stevenage in 22nd.
On home turf, Wigan's League One record reads 0W 0D 0L this term. Away from home, Stevenage have posted 0W 0D 0L in League One this season. Wigan: Promotion - League One (Play Offs). Stevenage: Relegation - League Two.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 44% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 35% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.33 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.886 / defence 0.840 | Stevenage attack 0.867 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.239. Data: 46 Wigan games / 46 Stevenage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wigan 47% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 25%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Stevenage 4.00. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 20% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Managers: Wigan (R. Lowe) | Stevenage (A. Revell) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 3W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wigan 4 – 6 Stevenage • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Wigan 17% / Draw 33% / Stevenage 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Stevenage (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Wigan as more likely (home 47% / draw 28% / away 25%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.24 (39% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 33%, Poisson BTTS probability 44% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Wigan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L • Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L • Wigan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Stevenage away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Wigan 1.50 PPG vs Stevenage 1.50 PPG) • xG vs form (Wigan): Poisson xG of 1.33 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson xG of 0.90 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.24 (39% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~35% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 47% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Wigan 1.33 / Stevenage 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.886 / def 0.840 | Stevenage attack 0.867 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Wigan (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stevenage xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stevenage kick off?
Wigan vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at The Brick Community Stadium.
Where is Wigan vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stevenage part of?
Wigan vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 47% chance of winning, Stevenage a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wigan and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
• Record (6 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 3W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wigan 4 – 6 Stevenage • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Wigan 17% / Draw 33% / Stevenage 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Stevenage (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Wigan as more likely (home 47% / draw 28% / away 25%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.24 (39% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 33%, Poisson BTTS probability 44% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Wigan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L • Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L • Wigan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Stevenage away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Wigan 1.50 PPG vs Stevenage 1.50 PPG) • xG vs form (Wigan): Poisson xG of 1.33 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson xG of 0.90 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.24 (39% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~35% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Wigan vs Stevenage?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture