Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wigan at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Stevenage at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's home record at The Brick Community Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wigan are significantly better at The Brick Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wigan, 2 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 44% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 33% | Stevenage 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.04 xG and Stevenage 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.932 / defence 0.908 | Stevenage attack 0.949 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.070. Data: 62 Wigan games / 61 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 38% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 30% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 2W • Goals trend: 2.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wigan 4 – 5 Stevenage • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Wigan 25% / Draw 25% / Stevenage 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 31% / away 31% • Goals: H2H average 2.25/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.96 (31% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 39% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Wigan (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W • Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W • Wigan home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Stevenage away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 2 • Form edge: Stevenage lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Wigan): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson projects 0.92 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.6 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.96 (69% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 39% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Stevenage on PPG but Poisson rates Wigan higher (38% vs 31% for Stevenage) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 38% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Wigan 1.04 / Stevenage 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.932 / def 0.908 | Stevenage attack 0.949 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Wigan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Stevenage xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stevenage kick off?
Wigan vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Wigan 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Wigan vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stevenage part of?
Wigan vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 38% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wigan and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
• Record (4 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 2W • Goals trend: 2.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wigan 4 – 5 Stevenage • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Wigan 25% / Draw 25% / Stevenage 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 31% / away 31% • Goals: H2H average 2.25/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.96 (31% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 39% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in?
• Wigan (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W • Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W • Wigan home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Stevenage away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 2 • Form edge: Stevenage lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Wigan): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Stevenage): Poisson projects 0.92 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.6 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.96 (69% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 39% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Stevenage on PPG but Poisson rates Wigan higher (38% vs 31% for Stevenage) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Wigan vs Stevenage?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture