Wigan 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Stevenage at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wigan's home record at The Brick Community Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wigan at 1.70 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wigan, 2 for Stevenage and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Stevenage trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 52% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Stevenage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.18 xG and Stevenage 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.860 / defence 0.808 | Stevenage attack 0.711 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.287. Data: 52 Wigan games / 52 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 46% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 23%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 4.35. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 30% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 46% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Wigan 1.18 / Stevenage 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.860 / def 0.808 | Stevenage attack 0.711 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Wigan (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Stevenage xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stevenage kick off?
Wigan vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Wigan 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Wigan vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stevenage part of?
Wigan vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Wigan and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Wigan 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Wigan vs Stevenage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.86) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.20
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.92
0.74
Stevenage xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Wigan and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Wigan and 0.74 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan's recent record stands at 22W 11D 19L from 52 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 16L across 52 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.48 PPG, Stevenage on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 14W 4D 7L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.19 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 22W 11D 19L in their last 52 games (1.48 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Stevenage away?
Wigan's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.84 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Wigan or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wigan
2
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Stevenage have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 36%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Wigan) and 56% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Stevenage in 32%; Stevenage in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Wigan's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Wigan's recent games and 56% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Stevenage tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wigan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan and Stevenage finished level at 0-0 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.18 xG and Stevenage 0.74 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wigan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Stevenage attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 46% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 23%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Stevenage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.48 PPG, Stevenage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.