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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wigan and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Wigan and Shrewsbury drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.45 xG and Shrewsbury 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against Shrewsbury attack 0.91 / defence 1.47, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 24%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 42%, Shrewsbury 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights