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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Wigan 0-3 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.84 xG and Plymouth 1.09 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wigan fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.66 / defence 0.79 against Plymouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 80/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 28% | Draw 31% | Plymouth 41%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 31%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plymouth's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wigan 1.18 PPG, Plymouth 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights