Wigan 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 38%, yet in-form Wigan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wigan vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Lincoln meet at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at DW Stadium this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.86 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DW Stadium this season.
Lincoln (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Lincoln's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 46% versus Lincoln 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 46% | Lincoln 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.23 xG and Lincoln 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.901 / defence 1.032 | Lincoln attack 0.905 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.359. Data: 13 Wigan games / 14 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 38%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Lincoln 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wigan (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 57% | Lincoln 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wigan 1.23 / Lincoln 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.901 / def 1.032 | Lincoln attack 0.905 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Lincoln xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Lincoln kick off?
Wigan vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Wigan 1 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Wigan vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Lincoln part of?
Wigan vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 35% chance of winning, Lincoln a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wigan and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in?
Wigan (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wigan's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.91x) against Wigan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.70
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Lincoln xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wigan and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Wigan and 1.27 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan's recent record stands at 9W 1D 3L from 13 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wigan by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.15 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lincoln's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln in 62%.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 9W 1D 3L in their last 13 games (2.15 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Lincoln away?
Wigan's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.67 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Wigan or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Lincoln in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wigan
4
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Wigan, 67% for Lincoln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wigan) and 50% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wigan's games and 67% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wigan's recent games and 50% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Lincoln tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Wigan 1-2 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.23 xG and Lincoln 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Lincoln attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 35% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 38%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 46%, Lincoln 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Lincoln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.