Wigan vs Leyton Orient – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wigan's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Leyton Orient's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Leyton Orient's attack (0.82x) against Wigan's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.10
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.79
0.73
Leyton Orient xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Wigan and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Wigan and 0.73 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.