Wigan 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 3 as Wigan welcome Crawley Town to The Brick Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wigan have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Crawley Town have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Crawley Town — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 54% versus Crawley Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.04 xG and Crawley Town 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.864 / defence 0.866 | Crawley Town attack 0.850 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.221. Data: 48 Wigan games / 2 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wigan 38% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Crawley Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 40% | Crawley Town 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 38% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Wigan 1.04 / Crawley Town 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.864 / def 0.866 | Crawley Town attack 0.850 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Wigan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Crawley Town xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Crawley Town kick off?
Wigan vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Crawley Town?
Wigan 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Wigan vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Crawley Town part of?
Wigan vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 38% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Wigan and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Crawley Town in?
Wigan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wigan's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.19
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.94
0.90
Crawley Town xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Wigan and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Wigan and 0.90 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wigan come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 10D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.62 PPG from 48 outings (24W 6D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.46 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wigan's home form reads 13W 4D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (12W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.71 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 24W 6D 18L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Crawley Town away?
Wigan's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.79 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Wigan or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Crawley Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wigan
1
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Crawley Town?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 38%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wigan) and 58% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Wigan's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wigan's recent games and 58% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Crawley Town 1-0 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.04 xG and Crawley Town 0.90 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 38% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 31%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.46 PPG, Crawley Town 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.