Wigan 2-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Charlton meet at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Wigan (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 5W 2D 3L at DW Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Wigan. A 0.50 PPG lead over Charlton (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wigan have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Charlton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 63% versus Charlton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 56% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.082 / defence 1.123 | Charlton attack 0.779 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.238. Data: 27 Wigan games / 30 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 44% | Draw 27% | Charlton 29%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 80% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 44% | Draw 27% | Charlton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Wigan 1.41 / Charlton 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.082 / def 1.123 | Charlton attack 0.779 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Wigan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Charlton kick off?
Wigan vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Wigan 2 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Wigan vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Charlton part of?
Wigan vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 44% chance of winning, Charlton a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wigan and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Wigan and Charlton in?
Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.08) and Charlton's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.78x) against Wigan's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 27/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.76
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.49
1.08
Charlton xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wigan and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Wigan and 1.08 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan come into this having played 27 games, going 17W 5D 5L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wigan's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 17W 5D 5L in their last 27 games (2.07 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Charlton away?
Wigan's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.85 PPG; Charlton away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Wigan or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charlton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Wigan, 69% for Charlton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wigan) and 54% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Wigan's games and 69% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wigan's recent games and 54% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Charlton tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charlton in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Charlton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Charlton 2-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 44% | Draw 27% | Charlton 29%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 56%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.