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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Cambridge United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wigan beat Cambridge United 1-0 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.34 xG and Cambridge United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Cambridge United attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 39% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 32%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 42%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cambridge United's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights