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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Wigan 1-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights