Sunderland 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sunderland at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sunderland welcome Charlton to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 0L across 6 games at Stadium of Light this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Charlton — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Charlton trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sunderland 50% and Charlton 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sunderland 75% | Charlton 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.98 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.328 / defence 0.784 | Charlton attack 0.834 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.322. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sunderland's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 Sunderland games / 13 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 63% | Draw 21% | Charlton 16%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Charlton 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Sunderland 50% | Charlton 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 63% | Draw 21% | Charlton 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.98 / Charlton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.328 / def 0.784 | Charlton attack 0.834 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Charlton kick off?
Sunderland vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Charlton?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Sunderland vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Charlton part of?
Sunderland vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 63% chance of winning, Charlton a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Charlton in?
Sunderland (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.33x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.77
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.84
0.86
Charlton xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
46.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.86 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Sunderland have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 9W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 2W 2D 8L from 12 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 1.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.33 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.25 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 83%.
Last 12 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Charlton in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 games (2.33 PPG), while Charlton have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Charlton away?
Sunderland's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 3.00 PPG; Charlton away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charlton in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Charlton 0-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sunderland at 50%, Charlton at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sunderland and 83% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sunderland's games and 100% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sunderland's matches and 83% of Charlton's.
Do Sunderland and Charlton tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charlton in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.98 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.33 / defence 0.78 against Charlton attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 63% | Draw 21% | Charlton 16%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 75%, Charlton 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.