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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wycombe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Wycombe 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.56 xG and Wycombe 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wycombe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Wycombe attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 84/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 50% | Draw 25% | Wycombe 25%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Wycombe 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wycombe's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.77 PPG, Wycombe 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights